Whatever the eventual outcome of the proposed acquisition of SPSS for US$1.2B  (This may be less than 1% of IBM’s current market capitalisation – but it is still a tidy sum for such a niche market player) one thing is clear;  It represents a significant punt by one of the leading IT products and services players on the potential value of Predictive Analytics.

An important piece of the acquisition is that IBM have the potential to bring the kind of service delivery –particularly in consulting and implementation - to bear that we haven’t seen in this area to date. IBM Global Services is a major player in Business/IT professional services and Big Blue has already announced the creation of a number of “Analytics Solutions Centers” the latest of which is in China .

This is also part of a broader strategic move into what might be termed “Business Analytics” that started in earnest with the acquisition (for about 4 times the current offer for SPSS) of Cognos in November 2007.

For me there is some déjà vu here. Oracle scanned the market for a Data Mining tool and ended up buying Darwen from Thinking Machines back in 1999. Since then Oracle have integrated Data Mining technology into their database server in what is now known as Oracle Data Mining (ODM). The products and market have matured somewhat since ‘99 and the definition of Predictive Analytics (which is/was always a subset of Data Mining) has helped us present a clearer value proposition to that market.

ODM, however, has always been a small planet relative to the considerably larger Oracle Sun (if you can excuse the pun). Though the IBM move may prompt them to respond. SAS already responded with a very early shot across the bows (SAS warns SPSS' users... ) of their traditional rival (SPSS) and IBM, who - at least in the past - have provided a significant platform for SAS themselves.

So this really does look like a major step up for the world of Predictive Analytics. We’re waiting eagerly for more clues to the IBM strategy.